Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.538401 0.621123 0.711315 0.816816 0.936706 1.068568 1.224447
2025-07-27 0.410193 0.525994 0.664791 0.842754 1.064169 1.329814 1.671865
2025-08-03 0.331448 0.459715 0.624563 0.850537 1.150622 1.533602 2.057292
2025-08-10 0.274809 0.406929 0.586834 0.847365 1.212186 1.701575 2.403751
2025-08-17 0.230812 0.362176 0.550402 0.836393 1.255733 1.842926 2.720844
2025-08-24 0.197089 0.326019 0.519489 0.826433 1.295400 1.977599 3.035329
2025-08-31 0.166239 0.289069 0.481577 0.799607 1.304473 2.065240 3.284912
2025-09-07 0.155468 0.282297 0.488674 0.841671 1.420654 2.319609 3.802154
2025-09-14 0.134088 0.254551 0.458248 0.819211 1.431182 2.410460 4.071976
2025-09-21 0.116211 0.230252 0.430318 0.796999 1.438476 2.494597 4.334919
2025-09-28 0.101812 0.210166 0.407056 0.779666 1.451147 2.586687 4.615530
2025-10-05 0.094464 0.202335 0.404629 0.798587 1.527525 2.789844 5.095566
2025-10-12 0.090270 0.200400 0.413321 0.839557 1.648417 3.081234 5.753962
2025-10-19 0.084448 0.194427 0.413722 0.865093 1.743699 3.335770 6.368515
2025-10-26 0.077350 0.184732 0.405590 0.872983 1.806078 3.535345 6.898452
2025-11-02 0.070000 0.173396 0.392698 0.869726 1.846070 3.695861 7.367076
2025-11-09 0.062803 0.161341 0.376830 0.858485 1.868811 3.824944 7.785130
2025-11-16 0.056538 0.150523 0.362281 0.848280 1.892253 3.956266 8.215522
2025-11-23 0.049708 0.137309 0.340840 0.820796 1.877136 4.010554 8.499300
2025-11-30 0.048526 0.137995 0.350947 0.863892 2.014436 4.376916 9.423014
2025-12-07 0.043122 0.127034 0.332682 0.840881 2.007048 4.449622 9.761568
2025-12-14 0.038347 0.116989 0.315369 0.818124 1.997868 4.517310 10.093453
2025-12-21 0.034373 0.108509 0.300851 0.800364 1.998070 4.604121 10.470005